How did a Hungarian mathematician use critical thinking and planning to prevent WWII Allied Generals from causing more bombers and crews to be shot down over Europe? And how does this apply to you in the Fire Service? Falling victim to the concept of Survivorship Bias can lead to disastrous results, both on the battle ground and on the fire ground, yet our society has been conditioned to succumb to this concept on a daily basis. Utilizing an examination of two separate historical military events, examples of Survivorship Bias in advertising and marketing, and a case study of a modern day Fire Chief, the student will discover how to use Critical Thinking and Planning to avoid the pitfalls and dangers of falling victim to Survivorship Bias.
Learning Objectives:
The participants will discover the concept and dangers, of Survivorship Bias.
The participants will recognize and identify situations in their personal and professional lives where Survivorship Bias exists and employ critical thinking and planning to make better informed decisions.
The participants will be able to articulate to others how to recognize and avoid making decisions based on Survivorship Bias.