Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of White-Backed Vulture, Gyps bengalensis in Asia
Tuesday, August 3, 2021
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Uzma Ashraf, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Lahore School of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan, Rida Naseer, Muhammad Nawaz Chaudhry and Mehreen Khan, Lahore School of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan, Uzma Saeed, Animal Sciences, Quaid I Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Presenting Author(s)
Uzma Ashraf
Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Lahore School of Economics Lahore, Pakistan
Background/Question/Methods The decline in the population of Asian Gyps vultures are one of the most rapid and widespread recorded among any species. International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has declared the Oriental White-backed Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) as critically endangered. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are widely used to estimate the distribution of species under different climatic scenarios based on their present-day climatic relationships. The aim of this study was to predict the current potential distribution and future distribution of Gyps bengalensis and identify suitable conservation ranges. Bioclimatic layers from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (2050) were selected to find the future projections of the geographic potential of the species. Maximum likelihood method (Maxent) was run to predict the species potential distribution in Asia. Results/Conclusions The results show that under future climatic scenarios the distribution of Gyps bengalensis will be severely affected. Results were highly accurate with low omission error and high AICc value. There is a significant decrease in the distribution of Gyps bengalensis due to extreme climatic conditions and loss of habitat. It is recommended that the areas predicted suitable for conservation of Gyps bengalensis must be taken under consideration to protect the species from becoming extinct.