Presentation Description: Few studies have quantified the interactions between wind siting, resource potential, wind deployment, and the evolution of the power system. These interactions are increasingly critical to understand with growing interest in high renewable energy penetration systems, particularly as renewable costs have fallen and grid operators implement solutions to manage variable generation. This study applies an integrative approach that combines spatially-explicit siting analysis with detailed U.S. electricity system modeling. Multiple wind supply curves, representing variations in siting regimes that account for physical, regulatory, and social land use factors, are evaluated to determine how future siting factors could influence prospective wind development and the evolution of the power system. Different siting regimes lead to variations in 2050 onshore wind capacity, ranging from increases up to 16% (67 GW) in the least-restrictive siting regime to a decrease of 35% (255 GW) under the most-constrained case, with the greatest impacts observed under scenarios with high clean energy demand. Stringent siting restrictions lead to higher electricity prices and emissions that should be weighed with local impacts. Under restrictive siting regimes, wind deployment is also sensitive to transmission and plant design. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of local land use considerations on power system planning.
Learning Objectives:
Describe the importance of wind siting on future long-term U.S. wind development.
Visualize potential future power systems including those with high shares of wind energy and their possible regional deployment pathways.
Compare the importance of wind siting factors to other drivers and barriers to wind development, including transmission expansion, wind cost reductions, and policies.
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