Presentation Description: As wind and solar deployments rise, the value of wind and solar generation declines relative to generators with more constant output profiles. This ‘value decline’ is simply due to downward pressure put on prices by the increased supply during windy or sunny hours. Value decline is cited as a motivator for aggressive cost targets for solar and wind. Here we present one of the most comprehensive analysis of wind and solar generation value across the United States. We analyze the value of all utility scale wind and solar plants across the organized power markets (RTO/ISO regions) based on carefully developed hourly generation profiles and hourly real-time prices. We isolate the impact of transmission congestion, generation timing, and curtailment on wind and solar value, providing insight into potential solutions to value decline. We find wind and solar value varies across regions and years. In regions with low solar penetrations, solar value has a premium relative to generators with constant output. That premium is significantly reduced with penetration. Wind value is lower due to both generation timing and congestion, with congestion dominating in the northeast even with modest region-wide penetration levels. Curtailment had a minor effect on wind and solar value.
Learning Objectives:
Upon completion, participant will be able to describe how the value of wind and solar generation has changed as penetration has grown across the seven major organized power markets in the United States.
Upon completion, participant will be able to describe how the value of wind and solar generation is impacted by the timing of generation, by transmission congestion, and by curtailment.
Upon completion, participant will be able to understand what drives differences in value between different regions and how these recent historical trends might provide insight into future value decline.
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