Presentation Description: To reduce operational risk exposure in proxy revenue swaps and proxy generation PPA’s, cash settlement calculations are based on what a project should have generated; as derived from a wind speed-based proxy generation. DNV GL, in collaboration with UMass, will investigate the error in proxy generation and proxy revenue for correlations between magnitude of error, time of day, and weather conditions. While the impact of measurement uncertainty and the calculation methodology on these settlement calculations has been discussed for flat terrain sites, little has been presented on their application in complex terrain. Despite this, proxy-generation based contracts are being signed at complex terrain sites. Through re-analysis of DNV GL’s extensive wind project operational data base and turbine power performance test data archive, DNV GL and UMass will quantify results in complex terrain sites in reference to the error in proxy calculations. In addition to analyzing the nacelle wind speed method to calculate proxy generation, we will also examine proxy generation calculated using re-analysis wind speeds, and provide a quantitative comparison of the two methods.
The objective is to provide better quantitative understanding of the relationship between wind conditions and price of energy, in order to better inform financial models relying on proxy generation.