(R2137) Genesis of Antibiotic Resistance (AR) LXVII: Inverse Correlation of morbidity and mortality rate with social distancing, stay-home program / shelter-in program/lockdown – A “Cogent Transmission Model” (CTM) for personal hardiness bolstering herd immunity
As of May 25, 2020, 15:38 GMT, the total number of coronavirus cases across the globe as 5,542,056, deaths: 347,381and recovery of 2,321,556 cases. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). We have chosen India as a prototype for the analysis of morbidity and mortality rates to learn about the principles and practices for achieving minimum causality under the most complex practical scenario. The State of Goa where 5 cases / 100,000 with no death reported as of May 25, 2020, 8:21 A.M. At the time of the data analysis, India was on 62nd day of lockdown. Based on the data available at this time, here we present an inverse correlation of decreased morbidity and mortality rate with increased social distancing, stay-home program / shelter-in program administered by Indian authorities. It is intriguing that a population of approximately 1.3 billion people, reporting a minimum morbidity and mortality rate (M&M rate) could be an exceptional example of coordination of incredibly diverse cultural and complex administrative fabric. In all, our hypothesis is that it is the herd immunity conferred the protection for an en masse from the current pandemic event. Based on the lessons learned from this current SARS-CoV-2, here we present a “Cogent Transmission Model” (CTM) in which community living confer and/or reinforce herd immunity induced protection from the future pandemic of infectious diseases caused by antibiotic resistance bacterial pathogens (ARBP). The success in sustaining a minimum M&M rate could be due in part by the social support system which is a significant element for the development of hardiness to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. The success of the current lockdown is a reflection of the social support system which is intertwined with perceptions of personal control enabling the coping process. Such a level of hardiness is also referred to as “Internal Locus of Control” (ILC). It is our observation that a pattern of consistency on the confidence level of each and every member of the community having considerable control over the events in overcoming the illness and combating the diseases is truly flabbergasting. Such a level of resilience draws a corollary of the hardy personality as identified in the “Personal Hardiness” (J. Pers and Soci. Psych 37, 1–11: 1979). Traits such as a. sense of commitment to self, b. control over their life at the individual level and c. view and make adjustments as challenges arise rather than viewing it as a source of stress. Taken together we suggest that commitment to self, control of self in dynamic social environmental circumstances and readjustment to challenges separate the people with “Personal Hardiness” from the rest of the society as a remarkable trait to overcome the fear of the unknown in a pandemic event (FASEB Journal 2019 33:1_supplement, 483.16-483.16). It would be a dream come true, should the principles of “Personal Hardiness” disseminated across the globe at all socioeconomic levels in every nook and corner at the earliest possible time, it would definitely vanquish the plausible pandemic of infectious diseases at its blossom.