P2798 - Forecasting Future Hepatitis C Disease Burden Between Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic White, and Hispanic Older Adults in the United States

Omar T. Sims, PhD¹, Zhiyan Wang, MS, MA², Yuqi Guo, PhD^3
1University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL; ²University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL; ³University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, NC

Introduction: Background: The extent of forthcoming racial disparities in hepatitis C (HCV)-related morbidity and mortality have not been quantified and are unknown. Objectives of this study were to forecast and compare future annual incident cases of HCV-associated morbidity (decompensated cirrhosis [DCC]; liver cancer) and mortality (HCV-related deaths) over the next 7 decades in the U.S. among non-Hispanic Black older adults relative to non-Hispanic White and Hispanic older adults.

Methods: We employed Markov modeling methods to develop four HCV disease simulation models using weighted, pooled HCV prevalence data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2009-2015).

Results: The height of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality peaked in 2030 with 41,000 annual incident cases of DCC and 18,000 annual incident cases of HCV-related deaths. Peak years of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality did not vary by race (range by race/ethnicity, 2029-2030). However, the number of annual incident cases per 100,000 for each endpoint of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality during 2030 was highest among non-Hispanic Blacks compared to non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics [DCC: 18 per 100,000 vs. 15 per 100,000 vs. 6 per 100,000, respectively; liver cancer: 11 per 100,000 vs. 10 per 100,000 vs. 4 per 100,000, respectively; HCV-related deaths: 7 per 100,000 vs. 6 per 100,000 vs. 3 per 100,000, respectively]. Additionally, the number of annual incident cases per 100,000 for each endpoint was highest among non-Hispanic Blacks throughout the disease simulation until 2056.

Discussion: Though non-Hispanic Blacks only account for < 14% of the U.S. population, it is forecasted that over the next 50 years non-Hispanic Black older adults will suffer from greater rates of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality than other racial/ethnic groups. Public health efforts are needed to curb and circumvent this escalating epidemiologic racial disparity that largely disfavors non-Hispanic Black older adults.


Disclosures:


Omar T. Sims, PhD¹, Zhiyan Wang, MS, MA², Yuqi Guo, PhD³. P2798 - Forecasting Future Hepatitis C Disease Burden Between Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic White, and Hispanic Older Adults in the United States, ACG 2021 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Las Vegas, Nevada: American College of Gastroenterology.