University of Alabama at Birmingham Birmingham, AL, United States
Omar T. Sims, PhD1, Zhiyan Wang, MS, MA2, Yuqi Guo, PhD3 1University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL; 2University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL; 3University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, NC
Introduction: Background: The extent of forthcoming racial disparities in hepatitis C (HCV)-related morbidity and mortality have not been quantified and are unknown. Objectives of this study were to forecast and compare future annual incident cases of HCV-associated morbidity (decompensated cirrhosis [DCC]; liver cancer) and mortality (HCV-related deaths) over the next 7 decades in the U.S. among non-Hispanic Black older adults relative to non-Hispanic White and Hispanic older adults.
Methods: We employed Markov modeling methods to develop four HCV disease simulation models using weighted, pooled HCV prevalence data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2009-2015).
Results: The height of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality peaked in 2030 with 41,000 annual incident cases of DCC and 18,000 annual incident cases of HCV-related deaths. Peak years of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality did not vary by race (range by race/ethnicity, 2029-2030). However, the number of annual incident cases per 100,000 for each endpoint of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality during 2030 was highest among non-Hispanic Blacks compared to non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics [DCC: 18 per 100,000 vs. 15 per 100,000 vs. 6 per 100,000, respectively; liver cancer: 11 per 100,000 vs. 10 per 100,000 vs. 4 per 100,000, respectively; HCV-related deaths: 7 per 100,000 vs. 6 per 100,000 vs. 3 per 100,000, respectively]. Additionally, the number of annual incident cases per 100,000 for each endpoint was highest among non-Hispanic Blacks throughout the disease simulation until 2056.
Discussion: Though non-Hispanic Blacks only account for < 14% of the U.S. population, it is forecasted that over the next 50 years non-Hispanic Black older adults will suffer from greater rates of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality than other racial/ethnic groups. Public health efforts are needed to curb and circumvent this escalating epidemiologic racial disparity that largely disfavors non-Hispanic Black older adults.
Omar Sims indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Zhiyan Wang indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Yuqi Guo indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Omar T. Sims, PhD1, Zhiyan Wang, MS, MA2, Yuqi Guo, PhD3. P2798 - Forecasting Future Hepatitis C Disease Burden Between Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic White, and Hispanic Older Adults in the United States, ACG 2021 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Las Vegas, Nevada: American College of Gastroenterology.